Why Tesla's Battery Swap Makes Sense

I've never been a big fan of the battery swapping model, and it was one of my many criticisms of the Better Place business plan.  The basic concept of a quick swap was sound but the execution always seemed to have a number of details that could not easily be addressed.  Additionally the actual need for swapping capability seemed limited.  Once again Tesla has thought a few steps ahead, dealt with those potential issues, and created a system that may prove to be useful.  First of all, unlike BP, Tesla had an existing successful business model that was not at all dependent on battery swapping, but they built the capability into the Model S, and X, from the beginning.  This actually makes some sense from a manufacturing standpoint, on the assembly line you need to be able to quickly install a pack with machinery for high volume production, so you might as well make it able to go both ways.  This makes any potential service much easier, and it also makes any future pack upgrades easier as well.  What Tesla has introduced is a giant battery pack vending machine, allowing current and future Model S and X owners a quick and easy way to future proof their vehicles by installing the latest and greatest battery pack when available, or at least swapping in a larger pack for the occasional longer trip.  For now they will simply supplement the supercharger network in heavy use areas and allow travelers to swap out their depleted pack for a full one.  Or not.  Elon has said they will install them to meet demand, and the choice will be free supercharging for 20 minutes or so, or paying $60-$80 for a 90 second swap.  It's an interesting experiment to see what people will actually choose.

Operator Error, NY Times vs Tesla

In a recent NY Times article  a reporter borrowed a Tesla Model S and ran it out of charge, forcing him to be towed.  One might jump to the mistaken conclusion that this is proof that EV's and specifically the Tesla Model S simply can't work.  Indeed, that may be the case, for some people, including that reporter.  For example, if you are the type of person who would take a long trip without filling the gas tank in their ICE, and then subsequently did not add fuel when the opportunity presented itself.  That in effect is exactly what this reporter did.  He failed to fully charge the car to start with, he failed to add enough charge when he was plugged in at other times, and he failed to plug the car in when he was stopped overnight.  The car was perfectly capable of making this trip if it had simply been used as designed.  From what others have said he was about 14 miles away from a charge point when he ran out of power, which never should have happened.

To be fair to the reporter Tesla did not instruct him properly on the operation of the vehicle and in truth some Tesla employees seem to have given him some bad advice on how to extend the range.  This blog points out a number of steps that could have been taken which would have resulted in a successful trip.

The bottom line is you need to know the operating parameters of any tool you are using, especially automobiles, and especially if it's one which is different than anything you have used before.  Even so, on average 10,000 people run out of gas in the US each day, but that's not worth reporting.

Growing Demand For Tesla

A number of people are attempting to claim that although the Tesla Model S is an amazing vehicle that seems to be winning every possible automotive award and pleasing the majority of customers, demand is going to drop off and Tesla won't have an expanding market for the car.  Even when faced with the reality of an almost sold out 2013 production run and increasing reservations some people insist that once the early adopter consumers have had their orders filled interest in the vehicle will drop off.  One thing they fail to realize is that this car is a marketing juggernaut that is selling itself now that is being released into the wild in ever increasing numbers.  There is no simple data that can explain the phenomenon, but I keep running across the experiences of Model S owners that paint a clear picture.  These quotes are just a small sampling of what can be found at the Tesla Motors Club forums:

At NO TIME in my fifty years have I seen those with McLaren experience come together with Prius owners and agree on spending $50K to $100K on a car. That simply does not ever happen and yet it has happened. Dogs sleeping with cats. Soccer moms driving rocket ships.

 After having my S for 2 weeks, it blows the doors off of any car I've either owned or driven previously. Luxury, speed, smoothness, space, responsiveness. Nothing compares.

 Ultimately, the Model S made for an easy proposition to pay above my original price-point to essentially make no compromises. Cool tech, no gas, space, luxury, and performance. This was all before I actually drove one! Once I had an oppotunity to drive one it was a serious no-brainer for me.

FWIW - I have tried HARD to find another car that excites me as much as the model S and I just can't find one.

 I've been in Los Angeles for the past three days, where the presence of high-end ICE's is about as good as it gets. I drove by the Ferrari and Lamborghini showrooms a few times and on the road the number of BMWs and Audis is countless. As much as I love and admire these cars, I kept getting the sinking feeling that their breeds are are not long for this world. It might be like how forward-thinking people riding horses felt when the first Model T's appeared. They probably recognized that the old ways were going to die.

Sure, these cars will remain. But they will become oddities of a kind -- collectors items to be admired as the pinnacle of a day gone by. The Model S is the future, ICE's are the past.

 I've driven pretty high-powered, RWD, good handling stick shift cars for my entire adult life.

The Model S is unique blend of driver's car and practical sedan. Even leaving out the eco-friendly/high-efficiency aspect, this car has no equal.

I can get better handling in a Ferrari or Porsche. I can get equal throttle response in a supercar like a McLaren. I can get a comparably comfortable ride and comfortably carry 5 adults in many big luxury sedans. I can get the same amount of cargo room in SUV's and some big sedans/wagon.

To the best of my knowledge, the only place I can get all of that in one car is the Model S. Period. To get that, I'll gladly put up with the 265 mile range and the lack of some features. Especially because it's pretty clear that the electric drivetrain is what lets Tesla put all those features into the one car.

 I think what is interesting is that tesla has attracted new buyers to the luxury car market, people like me who have never even test drove a luxury car.

 Everyone is totally blown away that has never heard of Tesla!!!
I am constantly having drivers behind me at stop lights aiming phones at me (and occasionally in front of me hanging out of a window and facing backwards!)

 I was dropping off a friend at MIA today, and pulled up to the curbside at departures. The skycap looked at the car, seemed intrigued, and then peeked inside and nearly flipped out. He called over some other skycaps, and before I knew it the entire skycap staff was looking at the car, taking pictures and video. I fielded a lot of questions. One of the skycaps said, "I've seen every type of car possible at my curb, and this is the nicest one I've ever seen." I thanked him. He went on to say, "Man, I mean 50 Cent was here the other day and this is nicer than his car!" I said, "Seriously? I beat Fitty???" "Most definitely," he replied. A large woman who appeared to be the supervisor came over to see what the commotion was, and she looked inside too and was apparently pretty impressed. "Are you married?" she asked.

 The other day a guy made about 3 full revolutions around my S by changing lanes and speeding up and slowing down to get shots of me with his smartphone.

And on and on and on, this is just a small sample of the ownership experience.  Tesla owners describe something called "Tesla Time", where you must leave extra time when making trips to answer questions from an admiring and inquisitive public.  At this point there are around 3000 Tesla Model S sedans on the road, in the US and Canada.   What will be the likely outcome when there are thousands more of them on the road world wide?  Does this in any way seem like a shrinking market that will only be populated by early adopters?  Place your bets.  I have.

Winning!

The awards keep coming for the Tesla Model S:

http://www.motortrend.com/oftheyear/car/1301_2013_motor_trend_car_of_the_year_tesla_model_s/

The mere fact the Tesla Model S exists at all is a testament to innovation and entrepreneurship, the very qualities that once made the American automobile industry the largest, richest, and most powerful in the world. That the 11 judges unanimously voted the first vehicle designed from the wheels up by a fledgling automaker the 2013 Motor Trend Car of the Year should be cause for celebration. America can still make things. Great things.

http://www.automobilemag.com/features/awards/1301_2013_automobile_of_the_year_tesla_model_s/viewall.html

 We weren't expecting much from the Tesla other than some interesting dinner conversation as we considered "real" candidates like the Subaru BRZ and the Porsche Boxster. In fact, the Tesla blew them, and us, away.

Of course, practically every new car claims to be revolutionary. But this one actually feels like it is, to the point that many of us were reaching outside the automotive lexicon to describe it. "It reminds me of the first time I used an iPhone," gasped associate web editor Ben Timmins.

http://ca.autos.yahoo.com/news/2013-yahoo--autos-car-of-the-year--tesla-model-s.html

 the Model S may not be a rocket to outer space, but it is the most significant automobile to land on our roads in many a moon.

http://techland.time.com/2012/11/01/best-inventions-of-the-year-2012/slide/the-tesla-model-s/

I expect more to come.

1000th Model S Body Produced

Saw this little update on the TMC forum and had to post it:

V proud of Tesla team for completing 1000th Model S body. More cars made this month than entire rest of year pic.twitter.com/k8XWaEth

1000 Model S Bodies

A nice milestone, especially in the face of the supplier issues Tesla has been struggling with.  Here's hoping the suppliers can get their shit together and help Tesla keep building their revolutionary Model S.

First Tesla Model S Delivered

First Tesla Model S all electric sedan delivered to the first customer, 2 weeks ahead of schedule.  What's not to like?

Many thousands more to follow.